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Heavy Contraband Alliance-Putin & Rocket Man-Clandestine Trading

De FaaktoNovember 5, 2023Comments Off41.1k

Intelligence Research Observatory

Heavy Contraband Alliance-Putin & Rocket Man-Clandestine Trading

Image courtesy of BBC

Methodology-OSINT research

Research & Analysis-S.A. Cavanagh

Research-Chuck Stevens

Images courtesy of Radio Free Asia (caveat) US intel sponsored source- thought to be area where Russia & North Korea exchange weapons and materials

Background & Analysis

Russian president Vladimir Putin and North Koreas supreme party leader Kim Jong Un share similar complexities. Both leaders’ countries are under serious international trade sanctions, and therefore have difficulty procuring technology and materials outside their respective spheres of influence. As international trade outliers, Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin’s problems converge. Both countries are prolific smugglers, being geographically close to one another makes clandestine transfers of industrial contraband a painless task. Vladimir Putin is bogged down in an infantry war of attrition with Ukraine. This type of warfare measures success by way of “Meat Assaults.” Conventional infantry attacking trench systems, each side gaining or loosing increments of dug in terra firma at the cost of human life. To continue this type of warfare Russia needs a continuous and massive amount of artillery shells to soften Ukrainian trenches and demoralize its soldiers. South Korea’s military Intelligence reports, North Korea is suspected of sending up to 1 million soviet 122mm Howitzer rounds, an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles, anti-tank missiles and portable anti-air missiles to Russia, in addition to rifles, rocket launchers and mortars. Kim Jong Un, AKA “Rocket Man” desperately wants military satellite capability, but has failed to successfully launch a military grade satellites on two previous occasions. Rocket Man cancelled a launch scheduled for October of 2023, for unspecified reasons, likely to avoid another failure. In return Rocket Man has secured help from Russia’s most important satellite launch centre, the Vostochny Cosmodrome, located in far eastern Russia. President Putin said Russia would help North Korea build satellites, without providing details. Because North Korea has failed on two occasions to launch military satellites, this technical assistance is of great importance to Rocket Man and successful implementation of North Korean Spy satellite programs. Kim Jong Un has requested, and hopes to receive Russian fighter jets and other aircraft in the exchange of respective military gear. American intelligence agencies have concluded that North Korea has indeed asked Russia for fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armoured vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment and other materials and advanced technologies. This Putin-Rocket Man Alliance will enable, Russia to continue its fight with Ukraine and further signals that Russia is not yet done with its war in Ukraine. Kim Jong Un will get help acquiring high quality spy satellite technology, while simultaneously upgrading his air force, air defense and mechanized armoured fleet, all of which will continue to destabilize the Korean peninsula.

Images are thought to be North Korean 122mm Artillery rounds courtesy of Ukrainian News Via Bloomberg

What Military Hardware is North Korea Supplying Russia?

Since August 2023-more then 1 million artillery shells (Aljazeera, 2023)
South Korea’s military Intelligence claim, that North Korea is suspected of sending an unspecified number of short-range ballistic missiles, anti-tank missiles and portable anti-air missiles to Russia, in addition to rifles, rocket launchers and mortars (AP New, 2023)

Major Patrick Hinton

An artillery officer in the British army who closely studies the war in Ukraine, said North Korea had a large stockpile of artillery shells and rockets that were compatible with the Soviet and Russian weapons systems being used by Moscow
He said North Korea probably transferred two types of munitions used by Russia in the war – Soviet-era 122mm howitzer rounds and 122mm Grad rockets (Guardian, 2023)

Col Ants Kiviselg

The head of military intelligence in the Estonian defence forces (EDF), estimated that the 1,000 sea containers reportedly shipped to Russia held a total of 300,000-350,000 artillery rounds

Image of Kim Jong Un accompanied by Putin at Russia’s Vostochny Cosmodrome space center, courtesy of North Korea News

What is North Korea Getting in Return from Russia?

North Korea is supplying munitions to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine in return for satellite technology
Seoul’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reported on Wednesday in return, Russia is assumed to be providing technology and know-how to North Korea
(Caveat) North Korea has failed on two occasions to launch military grade satellites, and therefore this is important technical assistance
North Korea also hopes to receive Russian fighter jets and other aircraft in the exchange of military gear (Aljazeera, 2023)
American intelligence agencies have concluded that North Korea has requested fighter aircraft, surface-to-air missiles, armored vehicles, ballistic missile production equipment and other materials and advanced technologies (NY Times, 2023)

Image courtesy of AP News- Kim Jong Un inspecting Russian fighter jets at factory

How much will 1 million North Korean artillery shells matter to Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine?

Military intelligence sources estimate these deliveries will keep Russian forces in Ukraine supplied for two months
According to South Korean Intelligence, munitions factories in North Korea are working at full capacity, and civilian factories are supplying needed supports to keep Russia outfitted with artillery shells for the conflict in Ukraine (Aljazeera, 2023)
If confirmed, North Korea’s supplying of significant quantities of munitions to Moscow could have profound consequences for the war in Ukraine,” said Joe Byrne, a research analyst at Rusi. “Russia wouldn’t be going to the North Koreans if they didn’t have to … For the Russians, a major North Korean supply line will alleviate their munitions hunger” (Guardian, 2023)

What are the politics of these munitions transfers?

Any weapons trade with North Korea would be a violation of multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions that Russia, a permanent U.N. Security Council member, previously endorsed
Both Russia and North Korea dismissed the weapons shipment accusations as baseless (AP News, 2023)
Outside speculation about North Korean arms shipments flared after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to Russia in September to meet President Vladimir Putin and visit key military facilities. The U.S. and its allies accused North Korea of seeking high-tech Russian technologies to modernize its arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles in return for its shipments of conventional arms (NBC, 2023)
“The level of rail traffic is far greater than what Beyond Parallel has observed at the facility during the past five years, even compared with pre-Covid-19 levels,” its report said. “Given that Kim and Putin discussed some military exchanges and cooperation at their recent summit, the dramatic increase in rail traffic likely indicates North Korea’s supply of arms and munitions to Russia” (Guardian, 2023)

Satellite image of railfrieght.com -border rail crossing area Russia & North Korea are exchanging weapons & materials confirmed by the US Intelligence via the White House

What do the logistics of the weapons shipments look like?

US intelligence, said as many as 1,000 North Korean shipping containers bearing “equipment and munitions” had been sent to Russia (October 2023) “in recent weeks”
The White House released satellite imagery revealing what it said were approximately 300 containers assembled in Najin, a port in north-east North Korea, and delivered via sea and rail to a depot near Tikhoretsk in south-west Russia, about 180 miles from the Ukrainian border (Guardian, 2023)
US intelligence reports have been corroborated by London-thinktank RUSI published a report that concluded: “Russia has likely begun shipping North Korean munitions at scale”
Analyzing high-resolution satellite images, Rusi said three Russian cargo vessels linked to the country’s military had been sailing between the North Korean port of Rajin and the secretive port facility in Dunai, in Russia’s far east, making at least five round trips beginning in mid-August
Shortly after the Kim-Putin summit, the Beyond Parallel project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank in Washington analysed separate satellite images that it said “captured a dramatic and unprecedented level of freight railcar traffic at North Korea’s Tumangang rail facility”, which is located on the border with Russia (Guardian, 2023)
About 300 shipping containers were spotted being staged at Najin, North Korea, on Sept. 7 and 8, according to the White House account. The shipment was transported on the Russian-flagged M/V Angara to Dunay, Russia, on the Sea of Japan, where it arrived on Sept. 12, the day before the Putin-Kim meeting
Additional containers were prepared for delivery back to North Korea
The containers from North Korea were then moved by rail across the expanse of Russia to the ammunition depot in the southwestern region of the country, near Tikhoretsk, about 180 miles from the Ukrainian border, arriving on Oct. 1, according to the U.S. intelligence (NY Times, 2023)