Russian Strategy & Vladimir Putin’s Symbolic Bridge, Keeping NATO out of Crimea & the Sea of Azov-De Faakto Intelligence Analysis

De Faakto Intelligence Research Observatory

 

Russian Strategy & Vladimir Putin’s Symbolic Bridge, Keeping NATO out of Crimea & the Sea of Azov-De Faakto Intelligence Analysis

 

(NEW CASPIAN SEA WORLD MAP-link-italia.org-MAP, 2018)

Methodology
OSINT-research 

 

Background & Analysis
The Sea of Azov is a strategic maritime gateway to the Don & Volga Rivers which meander through western Russia. Within range of Moscow; these rivers alternatively provide the only maritime access to the Caspian Sea. Russia has annexed the Crimea, built the Kerch Strait Bridge and is aggressively controlling regional maritime access, augmenting Russian homeland security. These actions are part of Russian military doctrine; deny NATO regional presence and prevent Ukraine from obtaining NATO membership & support. Annexing the Crimea and building the Kerch Strait Bridge is a strategy to keep the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol logistically supplied. Concurrently the bridge allows Slavic Russians & North Caucasus residents of various ethnicities and nationalities to migrate to the small peninsula; changing national demographics. (Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2018) The bridge is an industrial and cultural show of force and demonstrates physical reunification of Crimea with the Russian mainland. The bridge is representative of Russian expansion and power projection in the near abroad. (Strategic Sentinel, 2017) Successful completion of the Kerch Strait Bridge is likely to encourage the Kremlin to pursue even more ambitious and expensive mega-projects in other parts of the Russian Federation. Many Russians view annexing Crimea as Putin’s crowning achievement, regaining the region has been a nationalist rallying cry for decades. An attack on the bridge is an attack on Mr. Putin himself, his power and his prestige. (The Globe and Mail, 2018) In Putin’s own words, the matter is closed — and Crimea will never be returned to Ukraine “There are no such circumstances and there will never be.” (CNN, 2018)

Why is the Kerch Strait of Strategic Importance?
• The Kerch Strait allows large ocean going vessels to transit from the Black Sea to the Sea of Azov

Controlling the Kerch Strait allows Russia to control the regional maritime space;
• Black Sea at the Kerch Strait
• Sea of Azov
• Transit between Black Sea to Sea of Azov
• Transit between Sea of Azov to the Don River
• Don River to Volga Don Canal
• Volga River to Caspian Sea
• Maritime access to the Caspian Sea (The New Dark Age William Bowles, 2018)

(ResearchGate, 2018)

Why does the Kerch Strait matter to Ukraine?
• Ukraine relies heavily on the resources coming from the Azov Sea, mainly fishing and the exporting of steel from Mariupol to the West (Strategic Sentinel, 2017)
• Ukraine has two major ports on the Sea of Azov through which it exports steel and agricultural products (The Globe and Mail, 2018)

Why does Russia want to control the Sea of Azov?
• Russia knows that preventing NATO access to the Sea of Azov and the Don and Volga Rivers denies NATO access to greater inland Russia & ultimately the capital, Moscow

Defensive Depth of Security-Keeping Maritime Access to the Caspian Sea difficult
• The Caspian Sea provides maritime access to-Kazakhstan, Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan
• Russia already controls access to the land locked Caspian Sea by controlling the Volga-Don Canal
• Russia taking control of the Sea of Azov provides additional depth of security of the Volga-Don Canal

Defense and Security of Western Russia & Moscow-Denying Access to the Don River
• Controlling the Sea of Azov allows Russian to control access to the Don River which connects most of western Russia and is a route to the capital Moscow
• Access denial to the Don River is key to Russian homeland security and countering NATO

Annexing Crimea-The Strategy
• Many Russians view annexing Crimea as Putin’s crowning achievement
• Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev transferred control of Crimea from Russia to Ukraine in 1954, regaining the region has been a nationalist rallying cry for decades (Washington Post, 2017)
• For Russia, the most important thing strategically is that Ukraine never becomes part of NATO
• Russian military doctrine sees NATO and bordering NATO countries as a threat to Russian national security
• If Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia would be flanked, except for Georgia, around the Black Sea by NATO members
Prevent Ukraine from joining NATO
• NATO does not accept new members with frozen conflicts or border disputes (The Globe and Mail, 2018)
• Russia knows that small, non-violent border and shipping conflicts in the Sea of Azov would be enough to keep Ukraine out of NATO (The Globe and Mail, 2018)
• Preventing Ukraine from obtaining NATO membership, disallows NATO from conducting military exercises & operations close to Russian territory (Strategic Sentinel, 2017)
Secondary Tactic
• Annexing the Crimea will allow Slavic Russians & North Caucasus residents of various ethnicities and nationalities to migrate to the small peninsula, changing national demographics
• Crimea’s occupation administration estimates that, in 10–20 years, the local population will double (Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2018)

The Crimean Bridge, the symbolic bridge that Vladimir Putin Built
• The Kerch Strait Bridge, officially named “The Crimean Bridge” is a symbolic monument to Russian strategic regional accomplishments and the return to power and influence of Vladimir Putin’s Russia
• The Kerch Strait Bridge is the physical “reunification” of Crimea with the Russian mainland
• The bridge also stands as a key paramount and physical symbol to Russian expansion and power projection in the near abroad (Strategic Sentinel, 2017)
• There is no question that for Russia the Crimean Bridge is a vital national asset; an attack on the bridge is an attack on Mr. Putin himself, his power and his prestige (The Globe and Mail, 2018)

The Kerch Strait Bridge is representative of,
• Russian annexation of Crimea

Maritime control of,
• The Kerch Strait
• The Sea of Azov
• Increased security & control of the Don & Volga River
• Increased security & control of access to the western river basin, which links to western Russia and Moscow
• Russian maritime control & access to the Caspian Sea

What does completion of The Crimean Bridge mean?
• Successful completion of the Kerch Bridge is likely to encourage the Kremlin to pursue even more ambitious and expensive mega-projects in other parts of the Russian Federation (Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2018)
• President Vladimir Putin has already discussed the opportunity to build a bridge to Sakhalin Island, which would be three times more expensive than the Kerch Bridge (Eurasia Daily Monitor, 2018)
• Inflicting economic damage on Ukraine is a second, but important, use of the bridge; this is an example of Russia using hybrid warfare not to crush an enemy, but to continually weaken him (The Globe and Mail, 2018)

Information about Vladimir Putin’s “Crimean Bridge”
• The official name of the Kerch Strait Bridge is the “Crimean Bridge”
• The Kerch Strait Bridge connects Russia to the Ukraine
• The bridge is 19 kilometers or 12 miles long
• The bridge cost 4 billion dollars
• The bridge spans the Strait of Kerch between the Taman Peninsula of Krasnodar Krai and the Kerch Peninsula of Crimea (which is part of Ukraine)
• The Bridge is composed of two parallel bridges
• The bridge supports road and rail traffic
• The bridge’s highway will have four lanes and expects to accommodate up to 40,000 cars each day
• The speed limit will be 120 km/h, toll free, and it will take about 10 minutes to drive from end to end
• There will be two railway tracks, taking 47 trains per day
• The bridge will have special 227 meter long, 35 meter high archways to allow boats to pass underneath
• 700 mines, had to be diffused by Sappers before construction could begin (Russia Beyond, 2017)
• The Crimean Bridge is the longest bridge in Russia and Europe
• The bridge is constructed by Arkady Rotenberg’s Stroygazmontazh
• Construction started in May of 2015
• The bridge was opened to road traffic by Vladimir Putin in May of 2018
• The rail bridge will be opened in 2019
• The Crimean Bridge limits shipping to vessels no taller than 33 meters-this prohibits large ships (commercial & navel) from accessing the Sea of Azov (The Globe and Mail, 2018)

Why Build the Crimean Bridge?
• Building 12 miles of concrete and steel over the Black Sea’s Kerch Strait is an industrial and cultural show of force
• A bridge coming directly from the Russian mainland into Crimea would allow Russia to transport massive amount of goods to the naval station in a time of need to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol (Strategic Sentinel, 2017)

Who Protects Putin’s Bridge?
• Mr. Putin has entrusted the security of the Crimean Bridge largely to the Russian National Guard, which has been called his personal army
• Viktor Zolotov heads the Russian National Guard, Mr. Putin’s former bodyguard, reports not to the Minister of Defense but directly to the President (The Globe and Mail, 2018)

What military hardware is protecting Putin’s Bridge?
• Russia is taking extraordinary measures to protect the bridge from attack from air, sea or underwater
Deployment of,
• Russian S-400 anti-missile system
• Combat divers with automatic weapons that can fire underwater
• Unmanned underwater vehicles
• Hydro-acoustical systems will be used to detect enemy explosives and enemy divers (The Globe and Mail, 2018)

Will the Kerch Strait ever be returned to Ukraine?
• In Putin’s own words, the matter is closed — and Crimea will never be returned to Ukraine
• Asked in a television interview earlier this year if there were circumstances that would allow the return of Crimea, he replied: “There are no such circumstances and there will never be.” (CNN, 2018)

 

Resources

The Kerch Strait Bridge: A Double-Edged Sword for Northwest Caucasus-Eurasia Daily Monitor (2018) https://jamestown.org/program/the-kerch-strait-bridge-a-double-edged-sword-for-northwest-caucasus/

The Kerch Strait Bridge: August 29th Progress-STRATEGIC SENTINEL, LLC (2017) https://www.strategicsentinel.org/single-post/2017/08/31/The-Kerch-Strait-Bridge-August-29th-Progress

Putin’s bridge over troubled waters-The Globe & Mail (2018) https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-putins-bridge-over-troubled-waters/

Russia’s bridge to Crimea: A metaphor for the Putin era-CNN (2018) https://www.cnn.com/2018/05/15/europe/russia-crimea-bridge-intl/index.html

STRATEGIC WATERWAYS AND “THE KERCH STRAIT INCIDENT”: TOWARDS MILITARY ESCALATION? BY PROF MICHEL CHOSSUDOVSKY-THE NEW DARK AGE WILLIAM BOWLES (2018) https://williambowles.info/2018/11/27/strategic-waterways-and-the-kerch-strait-incident-towards-military-escalation-by-prof-michel-chossudovsky/

Putin made a show of crossing the new Crimea Bridge. But he was upstaged by a cat-The Washington Post (2018) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2018/05/16/putin-made-a-show-of-crossing-the-new-crimea-bridge-but-he-was-upstaged-by-a-cat/?utm_term=.67362995fad3

The project of the century: 10 facts about Europe’s longest bridge-Russia Beyond (2018) https://www.rbth.com/multimedia/2017/07/25/the-project-of-the-century-10-facts-about-europes-longest-bridge_810330

Getting Out of the Caspian Sea is Still Difficult-Iranian Diplomacy (2010) http://irdiplomacy.ir/en/news/1453/getting-out-of-the-caspian-sea-is-still-difficult

NEW CASPIAN SEA WORLD MAP-link-italia.org-MAP (2018) http://link-italia.org/caspian-sea-world-map.html/new-caspian-sea-world-map-0

Map showing location of the modern Caspian, Black and Azov Seas and the Volga–Don Canal-Research Gate-MAP (2018) https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-showing-location-of-the-modern-Caspian-Black-and-Azov-Seas-and-the-Volga-Don-Canal_fig2_263103190

MAP Showing Don & Volga Rivers-Sea of Azov & Caspian Sea-ResearchGate (2018) https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Map-showing-location-of-the-modern-Caspian-Black-and-Azov-Seas-and-the-Volga-Don-Canal_fig2_263103190

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